Anthropic IPO Valuation Slashed From $2 Trillion to ¥206 Trillion as Investors Drive a Harder Bargain on Revenue Multiple
By Google News AI ·
The valuation investors envision for Anthropic's initial public offering is falling fast. Some investors are negotiating in a range of $1.2 trillion to $1.3 trillion (about ¥189.6 trillion to ¥205.4 trillion), roughly one-third below the $2 trillion (about ¥316.8 trillion) that was floated in early October.
Even for a generative AI company boasting strong revenue growth, the stock market is beginning to scrutinize the reasonableness of its pricing.
The decline in the expected valuation came in stages. In early October, a $2 trillion figure was the talk of the market, but after Anthropic walked investors through its financials, that fell to $1.4 trillion to $1.5 trillion (about ¥221.2 trillion to ¥237.6 trillion).
Then, according to a November 5 report by the U.S. newspaper the Wall Street Journal (WSJ), one of three prospective investors expects the company's value at listing to approach $1 trillion (about ¥158.4 trillion). The offering price has not been decided, and Anthropic declined to comment.
■Revenue More Than 12 Times Year-Earlier Level
According to an amended filing, third-quarter 2026 revenue was $16.96 billion (about ¥2.7 trillion), more than 12 times the $1.38 billion (about ¥220 billion) recorded a year earlier. Revenue also grew 47% from the second quarter. Computing resources and infrastructure costs needed to develop and run AI rose 382% from a year earlier, but revenue growth reached about three times the pace of cost growth.
The number of large customers paying at least $100,000 (about ¥16 million) a year topped 11,900, up sharply from more than 950 a year earlier.
A $2 trillion valuation would be about 30 times annualized third-quarter revenue, while $1.3 trillion would be about 19 times. Investors are effectively seeking to cut by about one-third the amount they pay for each dollar of revenue.
The valuation decline accelerated with the stock market plunge on November 5. The Nasdaq-100 Index fell 6.4% that day, its biggest drop since 2020, as investors factored in the possibility that a Democratic-led U.S. Congress could make building new data centers harder. IPO price negotiations are moving in tandem with the market.
■Contrast With Robotics Company That Listed at About 1,400 Times Revenue
On November 5, the day of the market plunge, humanoid robot developer Agility Robotics began trading on Nasdaq. Its valuation at the time of the business combination reached about 1,400 times its 2025 revenue of $1.8 million (about ¥290 million). Anthropic, by contrast, generates revenue from an actual business, and investors are using profit-and-loss math to test whether the offering price is justified.
Bubbles form when investors stop checking a company's earnings, but for now the push to demand pricing that matches revenue is dominant.
A listing at a lower valuation works in new shareholders' favor. It is also evidence that AI companies are still being valued on a revenue basis, and some argue it is too early to declare an AI bubble.
■Pre-IPO Alternatives: Amazon and Microsoft
Anthropic shares cannot yet be bought, but shares of the companies it pays for computing resources can. According to the amended filing, Anthropic has committed to paying Amazon.com (AMZN) at least $110 billion (about ¥17.4 trillion) by April 2036 and Microsoft (MSFT) at least $44.9 billion (about ¥7.1 trillion) by June 2033. Computing resource spending is thus locked in for most of the next decade or so.
Even with long-term contracts, however…
Originally published by Google News AI
