What to watch this week: Inflation and Australian consumer confidence

By Google News Category TV Guides · 2026-11-09T02:26:36+01:00

Inflation, interest rates, and the health of the Australian consumer will be top of mind for investors this week, with a series of major economic releases due in Australia and among its key trading partners.

The week starts with S&P/ASX 200 futures up 0.2% at 7am AEDT, following a mixed session on Wall Street. The Dow closed 0.46% lower, while the S&P 500 gained 0.31% and the Nasdaq recovered 1.09% following Thursday’s rout.

Gold was trading at US$4,070 ($5,929) an ounce, iron ore at US$92.70 a tonne, and copper at US$12,436 a tonne, all down by around 0.5%.

Oil prices were slightly higher, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) trading at US$90.83 a barrel and Brent crude at US$98.32 a barrel.

China kicks off the week with October Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) figures.

Analysts and macro models forecast annual CPI inflation to remain steady at roughly 0.9% year-on-year for October 2026 (matching September’s actual reading).

The year-on-year PPI is expected to be 4.9%, easing slightly from 5% in September.

Why it matters: The data will offer fresh insights into the health of the world’s second-largest economy which is a major driver of global prices for industrial metals such as iron ore and copper, as well as energy.

It’s a big day for animal spirits, with Westpac Banking (ASX:WBC) releasing its Consumer Confidence Index and National Australia Bank (ASX:NAB) dropping its Business Confidence reading.

The Consumer Confidence Index will be the first major test of consumer sentiment following the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) 0.25 percentage point rate hike to 4.85% on Melbourne Cup Day, with Westpac’s survey period capturing the impact of last week’s decision.

The October reading was down 4.7% to 80.4 points, a fall from 84.4 in September, with consumers citing cost-of-living pressures, higher fuel prices, and interest rate concerns.

The latest reading will reveal whether consumers are becoming even more cautious in the face of higher borrowing costs, which may in turn have some sway on the RBA’s next interest rate decision.

NAB’s Business Confidence measures business sentiment and conditions during the final week of October, before the latest RBA rate rise and the US midterm elections.

It fell four points to -13 in September, 18 points below its long-run average, which NAB attributed to interest rate and inflation concerns, global uncertainty, and elevated fuel and diesel costs.

Also on Wednesday the US October Consumer Price Index release will be closely watched for clues on the Federal Reserve’s next move.

Annual inflation rose to 3.7% in September, while the Cleveland Fed’s ‘Nowcasting’ inflation tool forecasts a further increase to 3.77% in October, largely driven by energy costs.

A hotter-than-expected result could reinforce expectations that US interest rates will remain higher for longer, with flow-on effects for the US dollar, global markets, and monetary policy expectations beyond the US.

Focus on forecasts and why they matter: Markets are forward-looking, with investors already pricing expected outcomes into assets. As a result, economic data that meets consensus forecasts may have little impact on markets.

But a positive or negative surprise can trigger moves across stock, bond, and currency markets.

‘Stronger than expected’ data isn’t always good news either. If it points to persistent inflation, for example, investors may worry about higher interest rates.

The Australian…

Originally published by Google News Category TV Guides