Arizona opens at No. 22 in first CFP rankings as Miami tops nation, playoff picture takes shape
By Nicholas Raschke ·
Arizona opens at No. 22 in first CFP rankings as Miami tops nation, playoff picture takes shape
by Nicholas Raschke, Cronkite News
November 4, 2026
PHOENIX – Noah Fifita returned to Arizona in 2026 for unfinished business, but the clock is ticking. The Wildcats’ quarterback has just four regular-season games left to do what has eluded him throughout his college career: reach the College Football Playoff.
After last season's Holiday Bowl loss, Fifita said, “We got unfinished business and I’m coming back.”
His final shot isn’t gone, but the margin for error is slim.
Arizona entered the first College Football Playoff rankings released Tuesday night at No. 22, placing the Wildcats among five Big 12 teams in the Top 25 despite a recent loss to Texas Tech and setting up a crucial stretch of games that could determine its postseason future.
The Wildcats (6-2, 3-2 Big 12) landed two spots above their No. 24 ranking in the Associated Press poll, even after falling 34-26 to the Red Raiders on Saturday in Lubbock, Texas.
Arizona's two losses have come against teams ranked ahead of it in the committee's initial rankings: No. 9 BYU and No. 15 Texas Tech. After losing 28-17 to the Cougars in September, a loss to Texas Tech left the Wildcats tied for fourth in the Big 12 standings.
While Arizona remains outside the projected 12-team playoff field, its remaining schedule offers opportunities to improve its standing. The Wildcats host TCU on Friday before welcoming No. 3 Utah to Tucson on Nov. 14. They then travel to Kansas State before concluding the regular season against Arizona State in the 100th Territorial Cup on Nov. 28.
The Wildcats have been dominant in several of their victories, including a 39-3 win over Iowa State and a 34-7 victory over Cincinnati. However, questions remain about how Arizona measures up against the conference's strongest competition.
“Obviously, they’re a top 25 team,” Hunter Yurachek, Chair of the CFP Selection Committee, said. “There's only 25 teams ranked out of 138. The committee thinks very highly of them, but Arizona is 6-2. They've lost to both Texas Tech and BYU, two teams that are ranked in our top 25.”
ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI), a predictive measure of team strength, ranks Arizona 27th nationally. The Wildcats rank 52nd in strength of schedule (SOS) and 30th in strength of record (SOR), which measures how difficult it is to achieve a team's record against its schedule.
Those numbers show the challenge Arizona faces as it tries to climb the rankings. Its place in the top 25 recognizes a six-win start, but the Wildcats have yet to defeat a team currently ranked by the committee.
The Big 12's presence in the initial rankings extends beyond Arizona. Undefeated Utah (8-0) sits at No. 3, the highest ranking in program history, while BYU (7-1) is No. 9. Texas Tech (7-1) follows at No. 15, with Houston (6-2) at No. 17.
Utah and BYU face each other Saturday in the Holy War, giving the conference a major matchup between two top-10 programs. The Utes then travel to Arizona the following week, giving the Wildcats a chance to face one of the nation's highest-ranked teams on its home field.
For Arizona, the path to the playoff remains narrow, with a Big 12 championship representing its clearest opportunity to secure an automatic berth. For the conference as a whole, however, the opening rankings suggest multiple teams could remain in the national playoff conversation as November progresses.
Across the country, the committee's first rankings revealed a playoff race in which record, strength of schedule and predictive metrics do not always align.
Miami (8-0) earned the No. 1 ranking for the first time in program history, followed by Georgia (7-1), Utah and defending national champion Indiana (8-1). Those four programs would receive first-round byes if the playoffs began today.
Miami became the 11th program to reach No. 1 in the committee's rankings and the first Atlantic Coast Conference team to hold the top position since Clemson in 2017.
The distinction carries historical significance. According to the CFP, 11 of the previous 12 national champions began the season's initial rankings inside the top four. The lone exception was Ohio State in 2014, which debuted at No. 16 before winning the inaugural playoff championship.
However, only two teams ranked first in the initial CFP rankings went on to win the national championship that season: Alabama in 2020 and Georgia in 2021.
While Miami's position atop the rankings matched the AP poll, several placements further down the list produced some of the biggest surprises.
Notre Dame (7-1) suffered the largest discrepancy between the two polls, falling from No. 4 in the AP rankings to No. 11 in the CFP rankings.
The Fighting Irish are ranked first nationally in ESPN's FPI, suggesting they are among the strongest teams on a predictive basis. Their resume, however, tells a different story.
Notre Dame ranks 13th in strength of record and 55th in strength of schedule. Its lone loss came against BYU, which the committee ranked two spots higher, and its seven victories have not included a team currently ranked in the CFP top 25.
The contrast highlights one of the committee's central challenges: distinguishing between teams that predictive models consider the strongest and teams that have assembled the most impressive resumes.
“Regarding Notre Dame, they have an impressive 7-1 record, though their wins don't stack up against other teams,” Hunter Yurachek said. “They are a very good football team, but when you look at Notre Dame's schedule and the wins they have versus the teams ahead of them, they don't have that signature win right now.
“They lost their only top-25 matchup at BYU; their next-best win is on a neutral site against Wisconsin. They've got a great opportunity in front of them this weekend at home versus Miami to get that signature win that I think they need to move up in the rankings.”
The committee's evaluation process considers a team's full body of work rather than relying on any single statistic. Members evaluate game film, statistical information and conference input, according to the CFP, with strength of schedule, head-to-head results, common opponents and other relevant factors helping distinguish comparable teams.
For 2026, the committee also introduced a strength of conference enhancement, placing additional emphasis on differences in schedule strength within conferences. That emphasis may help explain why several teams with multiple losses opened ahead of programs with better records.
The Southeastern Conference placed 10 teams in the initial top 25, including five in the top 10. Alabama (6-2) ranked fifth, Kentucky (7-1) at sixth, and Texas (6-2) at seventh are all ahead of undefeated UCLA (8-0) at No. 8.
Alabama's placement was particularly notable because the Crimson Tide were ranked eight spots ahead of Tennessee (6-2), despite losing to the Volunteers 26-10 on Oct. 17.
Alabama has played the nation's seventh-toughest schedule, according to ESPN's metrics, while Tennessee's schedule ranks 25th. The Crimson Tide also own a victory over Kentucky, which entered at its highest CFP ranking in program history.
Kentucky's position provides another example of how resume strength and predictive performance can differ. The Wildcats rank second nationally in strength of record and eighth in strength of schedule but just 26th in FPI.
UCLA faces the opposite situation. The Bruins are one of three undefeated teams in the rankings, alongside Miami and Utah, and rank third nationally in strength of record. However, they sit 28th in FPI and have played the nation's 77th-toughest schedule.
Utah, by comparison, has played the 83rd-toughest schedule but ranks 10th in FPI and fifth in strength of record.
The difference between the two undefeated programs raises questions about how the committee weighs the quality of a team's performances against the strength of its opponents.
Ohio State (6-2) presents another significant debate, entering at No. 12 despite holding the nation's second-highest FPI ranking.
The Buckeyes rank ninth in strength of record and 10th in strength of schedule. They also own a 19-15 victory over fourth-ranked Indiana on Oct. 17, but their latest loss, a 30-18 defeat at No. 20 USC, pushed them toward the playoff bubble.
Under the 2026 playoff format, the champions of the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC receive automatic bids. A fifth bid goes to the highest-ranked team from six designated conferences outside the Power Four. The committee fills the remaining seven spots through its final rankings, with Notre Dame guaranteed inclusion if it finishes in the top 12.
No. 25 Boise State is currently the highest-ranked team from that group of six conferences, meaning it would receive an automatic berth under the current rankings.
That would leave Ohio State as the first team outside the projected playoff field despite its No. 12 ranking, while Notre Dame would occupy the final available at-large position.
Ohio State and Alabama are the only two programs to appear in all 73 editions of the CFP selection committee rankings since the first release on Oct. 28, 2014. Yet their positions in the initial 2026 rankings reflect considerably different postseason outlooks.
The committee's decisions will be tested immediately this weekend.
Miami visits Notre Dame on Saturday in a matchup between the committee's top-ranked team and one of its most debated selections. Georgia travels to No. 10 Ole Miss, Alabama faces No. 14 LSU, and Kentucky visits No. 13 Tennessee.
Ohio State will host No. 23 Oregon, giving the Buckeyes a chance to strengthen their resume after consecutive weeks of significant Big Ten results.
In the Big 12, Utah's matchup with BYU will directly affect the conference championship race before the Utes travel to Tucson.
The selection committee will reconvene Nov. 9-10, with its next rankings scheduled for Nov. 10 at approximately 9 p.m. Eastern.
The final 12-team playoff bracket will be announced Dec. 6, with the national championship scheduled for Jan. 25, 2027, at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas.
“The parity this season has created a lot more teams with these types of wins (ranked victories),” Yurachek said. “The parity we have seen is obviously great for college football, but has made for an unpredictable year so far, an exciting games every week and we expect that trend to continue over the next several weeks.”
This article first appeared on Cronkite News and is republished here under a Creative Commons Attribution-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
Originally published by Cronkite News Sports