Black Michiganders helped push Abdul El-Sayed to victory – but the numbers show he was less popular with this key voting block than some other Democratic candidates
By Christine Slaughter, Assistant Professor of Political Science, Boston University ·
This article was originally published by The Conversation. Author: Christine Slaughter, Assistant Professor of Political Science, Boston University.
Progressive Abdul El-Sayed’s victory in Michigan’s U.S. Senate race was one of the most-watched contests in the 2026 midterm elections.
As the results for this race came in, I had my eye on one demographic: Black voters. I am a political scientist who studies Black political behavior. My research has been published in numerous journals, as well as in my forthcoming book, “Black Resilience,” which examines Black voters’ political participation.
Wayne County voters
The support of Black voters for El-Sayed was not a given. In the August primary, 62% of Detroit voters chose U.S. Rep. Haley Stevens over El-Sayed. Many pundits predicted it would be difficult for El-Sayed to gain support in Detroit, which is about 75% Black.
After the primary, El-Sayed made overtures by sharing his plans to improve the lives of Black Americans, which included supporting the growth of minority-owned businesses, creating more affordable housing, eliminating food deserts and expanding the Rx Kids cash assistance program nationwide.
About 91.8% of Detroit voters supported El-Sayed in the general election, according to the city’s unofficial results. Detroit City Clerk Janice Winfrey said 209,924 residents voted in the 2026 midterms, up about 21% from the 2022 midterm elections. For the 2024 presidential election, 247,770 city residents cast a ballot.
In fact, El-Sayed received 70.6% of Wayne County votes, which includes Detroit. In 2024, Kamala Harris received 62.7% of the vote in Wayne County.
Statewide support is holding steady
In the 2024 presidential election, Michigan’s Democratic vote share fell to 48.3%, from 50.6% in 2020, as the state went for Donald Trump instead of Democratic nominee Harris.
Despite their ideological differences, Sen. Elissa Slotkin and El-Sayed drew similar support among Black voters. In 2024, Slotkin – a moderate Democrat – won 48.6% of the vote, a small margin over Mike Rogers, who was the Republican candidate in that race. In 2026, El-Sayed defeated Rogers statewide by a substantially wider margin, winning 52% of the vote.
In other words, these early election results do not indicate whether Black voters embraced El-Sayed’s progressive platform or simply voted for the Democratic candidate. Voters may have been rejecting Republican Party politics or expressing anger toward Trump over pocketbook issues.
Researchers from Michigan State University found that precincts with more than 80% of Black voters supported Democratic statewide candidates over Republicans at a rate of 92% to 94% during the 2024 general election, which is only slightly lower than the 94% to 95% levels observed in similar precincts during the 2020 contest between Trump and Joe Biden.
Even while Black voters overwhelmingly support Democrats, small shifts in their support and turnout can influence the outcome of close and competitive races. These shifts may help explain differing outcomes, including El-Sayed’s victory in 2026 and Harris’ defeat there in 2024.
While Black voter support for El-Sayed was high, estimated at around 86% statewide, Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s support among Black voters was about 94% in the 2022 gubernatorial race, according to an ABC exit poll.
Similarly, preelection polling indicated that Jocelyn Benson, the Democratic nominee for governor, polled more favorably among nonwhite voters compared to El-Sayed. NBC exit poll data shows that 86% of Black voters in Michigan supported El-Sayed, while 90% supported Benson, who won the governorship over Republican John James.
Historic power and unity
Black voters are often strategic voters who support the candidate they believe best aligns with Black interests, which has usually been the Democratic candidate since the Civil Rights Movement.
Generally, Black voters have made their electoral choices based on what’s believed to be best for the group as a whole – a concept described by political scientist Michael C. Dawson as linked fate.
However, recent research shows that Black social networks and institutions, including churches and civic organizations, reinforce expectations of political solidarity. Weaker ties to these networks may lessen the social pressure that encourages Black Americans to participate in politics and support Democratic candidates.
Lower participation by Black Americans could lead to elected officials paying less attention to issues important to Black voters, such as affordability and the cost of living, healthcare, and reducing racial discrimination. If officials assume Black voters will remain loyal to Democrats, they’re under less pressure to win their votes by addressing their concerns.
My research has demonstrated that after the 2024 election, Black women in particular felt frustrated with the Democratic Party, yet they participated in elections despite these frustrations.
An agenda that matters
El-Sayed was part of a field of notable Democratic candidates in this election cycle. For example, Angie Nixon, a state representative in Florida, championed affordability alongside a moratorium on evictions and a universal jobs program, while James Talarico, a former schoolteacher in Texas, focused on public education.
El-Sayed is a former public health official who had not previously held elected office. This may have turned off some Black voters who often value governing experience. El-Sayed advocated for Medicare For All and lowering the costs of gas prices and groceries.
Although he doesn’t identify as a democratic socialist, El-Sayed campaigned with several progressive elected officials, such as U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders endorsed El-Sayed on the day he announced his candidacy in 2025. El-Sayed also campaigned with the Black establishment, including U.S. Rep. Jim Clyburn of South Carolina. Former President Barack Obama spoke at a rally for El-Sayed in Detroit in October 2026.
Stevens, who lost the Democratic nomination to El-Sayed in the primary, endorsed Republican Mike Rogers after she attended a service with the Republican candidate at a predominantly Black church in Detroit two days before the election. Stevens’ tactic drew severe backlash from Democratic leaders and may have mobilized some Black voters to turn out for El-Sayed on Election Day.
“I felt like she pimped my community,” one Black voter from Detroit told ABC News in response to Stevens’ last-minute endorsement of Rogers.
Christine Slaughter does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Originally published by The Conversation US