With the Anthropic IPO fast approaching (18 November), I'm sure I'm not the only one excited about the opportunity to buy shares in one of the world's leading AI companies. However, rather than getting caught in the hype, I wanted to understand what the underlying numbers actually tell us.
So I went through the company's lengthy (443-page) S-1 filing. Despite getting bored in some areas, and using AI to help me in others, three things stood out when it comes to thinking about buying Anthropic stock… or not.
The first thing that caught my attention was the sheer pace of growth. Anthropic generated just $41m in revenue in 2023. This increased to $386m in 2024, before surging to $4.6bn in 2025.
Even more impressively, revenue reached $16.3bn during the first six months of 2026. That's equivalent to an annualised run rate of $32.6bn. To me, that clearly shows enterprise AI adoption's moving well beyond experimentation.
Another encouraging sign is the company's expanding customer base. By September, more than 11,900 customers were generating at least $100,000 in annual revenue for Anthropic, with around 250 spending over $10m. So even though some large tech clients still dominate the spend, there are plenty of other companies helping to diversify revenue.
The second thing that surprised me was the scale of Anthropic's infrastructure obligations. As of June, the company had around $265.6bn in fixed or minimum guaranteed commitments, alongside another $321.4bn in leases that hadn't yet commenced.
I had to read that a few times to make sure I wasn't going mad. It's a huge amount of money. Of course, Anthropic benefits from partnerships with related companies, which provide computing infrastructure without Anthropic having to construct every data centre itself. But this doesn't eliminate the underlying costs.
As a side note, I also noticed concerns about Anthropic potentially receiving a below-investment-grade credit rating. This could make future borrowing more expensive and increase costs further.
The third issue's valuation. This was a sticking point for the SpaceX IPO earlier this year, and was one of the main reasons why I gave it a miss. With potential IPO valuations discussed around $1.4trn, we're are being asked to pay a substantial premium for future growth.
Using annualised first-half revenue of $32.6bn, that represents a ratio of almost 43 times sales. Even if revenue doubled and operating margins reached 25%, the valuation would still look higher relative to many established technology businesses.
I'm certainly impressed by Anthropic's growth, and I wouldn't rule out buying shares eventually. However, I think looking through the S-1 document's raised more concerns than confidence for me in buying on the launch day.
For now, I'd prefer to wait until the initial excitement settles and investors have a clearer picture of sustainable profitability.
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Jon Smith has no positions in the shares mentioned.
The post I waded through 443 pages to understand if I should buy Anthropic stock. Here's what I found out appeared first on The Twelfth Magpie.
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