Some offers on this page are from advertisers who pay us, which may affect which products we write about, but not our recommendations. See our Advertiser Disclosure.
Economists do not predict a housing market crash, but home buying concerns remain as the affordability crisis deepens.
The 10-year Treasury yield is reaching quarter-century highs, and mortgage rates are hovering around 7%. Home prices continue to rise while inflation is stubbornly elevated. Yet employment and the national economy remain steady. So, what's ahead for the housing market in 2026?
Generally, experts don't foresee a housing market crash in 2026, and recently enacted legislation could prop the real estate market up.
"The U.S. housing market faces a deepening affordability crisis that is driving home ownership further out of reach for many consumers," a recent J.P. Morgan real estate market outlook stated. "To this end, Congress recently passed the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act in July — a bipartisan piece of legislation that aims to reduce housing costs and increase housing supply."
However, the bill's initiatives won't take effect until Jan. 7, 2027.
Another dynamic in an evolving housing market: sellers outnumber buyers. In August, Redfin reported that the number of owners listing their homes was 58% higher than the number of buyers. It was the biggest spread between buyers and sellers since such stats began being gathered in 2013.
"Even during a time when housing costs are elevated, the surplus of sellers over buyers makes it a good time to be a house hunter, in some respects," Asad Khan, a senior economist at Redfin, said in a release.
Yet the analysis noted that it's only a buyer's market for people who can afford to buy.
"High housing costs and widespread economic uncertainty have caused many would-be buyers to back off in recent years, creating the imbalance of buyers and sellers we see today," Redfin reported.
The jobs market has been durable. In September, private-sector employment grew by 90,000 jobs, exceeding expectations.
"It's a strong report," said Dr. Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP. "After a three-month slowdown, job creation rebounded and pay growth remained solid."
The latest economic analysis of the national economy by UCLA Anderson, released Sept. 30, described a U.S. economy that has "proved surprisingly resilient through a series of shocks."
"The tariff increases that dominated the outlook in late 2025 were followed by the war in Iran and a sharp increase in oil prices in the spring. Despite those disruptions, underlying economic growth has remained around or above 2%," the report noted.
The analysis expects the labor market to stabilize, with unemployment remaining near 2%.
So, the jobs market is healthy enough that a housing market crash isn't expected anytime soon.
U.S. annual home price growth increased by only 1.4% in July, according to real estate data company Cotality.
"While prospective buyers may feel squeezed by volatile mortgage rates, slower home price appreciation should gradually help ease affordability pressures — especially if wage growth remains consistently stronger," Dr. Selma Hepp, Cotality's chief economist, said in an analysis.
"As we move through the remainder of the year, local labor market dynamics and affordability constraints will continue to shape housing market performance as much as broader macroeconomic shifts, especially the direction of mortgage rates."
For the housing market to…
